I received a fair number of emails regarding this article written two days ago.

Of course, I knew I would receive them, but few if any were rude, and most people went out of their way to make valid points.

What surprised me, though, was the recurring theme of the responses.

People thought I was unfairly criticizing the LVCVA over what I felt was the illogic behind their statistics.

Why did they think I was being unfair?

Apparently, there is a popular theory going around town. It is called the “carpool theory”.

In a nutshell, the gist of the theory is this:

“It is entirely possible for traffic to be down, and tourism to be up … because more people are carpooling.”

I think this theory is not reasonable, and instead of responding to everyone individually, I will simply tell you why I think it is not reasonable.

First of all, people cannot “carpool” in airplanes. People cannot sit three to a seat, nor be stuff in overhead bins. At least not legally.

Second, even if it were true that more people are carpooling … then I will give that argument the huge benefit of the doubt and concede that perhaps it could make up for the 6% fall in vehicular traffic.

But … could it rationally make up for the fall in air traffic?

No.

A huge number of tourists still use air travel as their only way to get to Las Vegas. There were 3.4 million tourists this past May, and 4 million people passed through McCarran airport in the same month. Sure, some of them were locals, people making connecting flights, and some were leaving, but that is a lot of passengers and probably the majority of them were tourists.

Why is this relevant?

It means that not only does “carpooling” have to make up for the drop in auto traffic, but it also has to make up for the drop in airline traffic.

“Carpooling” had to negate the drop in all forms of transit in order for the “visitor increase” to be accurate.

Exactly how many people can you fit in a car?

Sales of large vehicles are down across the board, and more and more people are opting for smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Especially middle-class people with less disposable income.

It is extremely unlikely that people who are on a budget and are worried about fuel costs, will be driving Humvees to Las Vegas crammed with other people who are also equally as worried about fuel costs.

The extra weight of the passengers themselves negates a percentage of the gas savings.

Most cars arriving in Las Vegas probably have 4 seats. Few vehicles seat 6 people comfortably, and even less seat eight.

I lived in Los Angeles. I rode a motorcycle and because of that, I was granted use of the carpool lanes by the great state of California. And most days, I had the carpool lanes to myself. Most Californians can’t be bothered to carpool for a thirty minute drive to work, but they carpool on vacation?

Tough sell.

The married couple or girlfriend and boyfriend who cruised two-to-a car last year, most likely aren’t relegating themselves to the backseat of their neighbor’s car for a 4 hour drive. Someone is going to have to pee at an inopportune time. Someone will want to stop in Barstow for food. It’s just a pain in the ass.

Also, most people have different times off and different schedules.  Coordinating vacations with strangers (or even friends) can be a logistical nightmare.

Assuming the average vehicle has remained the same size, or even decreased in size … where are they putting these “new” passengers this year? Strapping them to the roof? Shoving them in the trunk? Tying a rope to them and dragging them up the I-15?

It also assumes that nobody carpooled last year, and that the entirety of these new carpooling people represent only a RAW INCREASE in carpoolers.

People would have to have seen the carpooling light in double digit percentages in the last twelve months alone in order to rescue the Vegas travel numbers.

I don’t doubt that people do, and always have carpooled to Las Vegas.  I do not doubt for a moment that more people are doing so now than they did last year … but I highly doubt that the increase has been dramatic enough to offset 5% air travel drops and 6% vehicular drops respectively.

I am more inclined to believe that people who cannot afford the gas, are simply staying home. Even with the expansion of gas costs, it equates to about $18 more each way in gas from LA to Vegas. That’s not much more than a cab ride from the Mandalay to the Wynn. I don’t think that amount would plant me in the backseat of someone else’s vehicle for the long drive, and I don’t see that being a huge motivation for the majority of Vegas tourists.

If everyone in the car splits the gas costs, that is a “savings” of a whopping nine bucks each way.

Come on, guys.  Be rational.

Not to mention, when people get here without their cars, they will have to spend more on transportation anyway.  Cabs, buses, monorail, whatever.   Cab fare has recently gone up in response to gas prices,  making it even less economical for California tourists not to bring their cars.  In-town transit costs easily negate the gasoline savings during even a two day carpool trip.  Carpooling may actually end up costing the average driver more money, than simply driving.

There would have to be a huge number of “new carpool converts” in the last year alone to make up for the rest of the lost traffic.

And last but not least … there is the simple observational factor.

I lived here in May 2007. I lived here in May 2008. I live here now. There are fewer tourists.

Unless people were hiding out in their rooms, under tables, or were still locked in the trunk because the carpool driver forgot to let them out … there were fewer people here this May by every measure that a near-Strip resident could use, mainly … observation.

Last May, I refused to drive down The Strip at all. This year, it’s not much of a problem. There are fewer people everywhere. At the gambling tables, at the slots, at the pools, on the sidewalks, at the buffets, at the lounges … I have not stopped to make a head count … but there are just fewer people overall. Period. There are not more people here than there were last year. I don’t know how else to say it.

My regular cab driver informed my that his trip sheet is down 30% this year. If more people were coming here sans-personal-car, wouldn’t cab trips be up? Fine, maybe the increase in taxi medallions is to blame, but everyone I know in every sector in this town has noted that crowds are thinner.   Several people who flew in for “Rexfest” last month made the exact same observation while I was talking with them.  So it’s not as if people are just hiding from me personally.

Most of us here on the ground just don’t see an increase, and I don’t believe the .4% number.

Now, does any of this matter?

No.

The LVCVA doesn’t give a damn what I think, and whether or not I am right or wrong is completely and utterly irrelevant.

Whoever comes … comes, whoever doesn’t … doesn’t … and the rest is just more pointless yapping on the Internet.

Things will happen on their own terms whether myself, the LVCVA, or anyone else is right or wrong. It’s mental masturbation at this point. It simply doesn’t matter outside of the small confines of our own skulls.

If people want to think tourism is up … the more power to them. Fine, then congratulations, it’s up. Whatever whacks your willy.

But if people want an answer as to why I do not believe the “official” number, well, there is the explanation.

Flame away ….